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Lumber futures and selling prices regressive in USA

25.06.2021 − 

At US$1,009/1,000 bdft, the lumber futures for July 2021 on 16 June were already 41% lower than the peak on 10 May. According to the figures of the CME Group the listings had been decreasing continuously since the beginning of the month and reached the mid-April level again last week. The average selling price for the benchmark grade of western spruce pine fire (WSPF) KD R/L 2x4 #2&Btr was given by Madison’s Lumber US$1,275/1,000 bdft FOB sawmill on 11 June, roughly 22% lower than the previous peak of US$1,640 in May. The sales volume appears to have been rather low in the last few days as many buyers are evidently banking on further decreasing prices and are accordingly cautious in making their arrangements.

The latest data on sawnwood output and on capacity utilisation in the sawmilling industry shows growth in Canada as well as in the USA. As the problems that had arisen in the supply chain in the first few months have also been resolved, production activity is expected to move closer to the level of demand. According to Madison’s Lumber, until the beginning of June, sawnwood producers had initially seen no reason to reduce their prices more heavily due to the order backlogs that still exist. Pressure from the wholesale sector then evidently rose over the last two weeks after all, to the extent that significant downward adjustments have been made again recently.

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