German building federation expects completions to decrease by 12.5%

The German building federation ZDB has forecast a 12.5% decline in completed living units to around 245,000 for 2023. In 2022, an estimated 280,000 living units will be completed. ZDB president Reinhard Quast expects a further decline in completions in 2024 due to caution concerning investment decisions. The decline in new construction can only be partially offset by growth in the renovation sector. ZDB thus forecasts a turnover decline - adjusted to account for price differences - of 10.0% in 2023 for companies active in housing construction. In nominal terms, turnover is expected to fall by 5.1% to €57.6bn.

The commercial structural engineering sector is unlikely to grow due to the unclear economic outlook and increases in construction costs. Accordingly, turnover in the current year is expected to fall short of the previous year’s level by 8.8% in real terms and by 3.8% in nominal terms to €30.8bn. In the public structural engineering sector, investments cannot be expanded. For the construction industry as a whole, a decline of 7.2% in real terms and 2.1% in nominal terms to €154.6bn is forecast.

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